PayDay Stocks TimeWarp D90 Program

Difficult to determine who is writing this review, but whoever you are, just wanted to thank you for your thoughts

He’s now offering something he calls Time Warp Extravaganza. I’m not participating, but 100 traders, divide into 25 teams (4 people per team) and trade a 5k account for 6 months. I won’t go into all the details, or what I don’t like about this program that’s keeping me out of it, but I’m just posting here in hopes that someone will post their experiences. I think Ryan’s programs need more honest postings of what his results really are. I plan to post my results of trading some of his other programs, but am still riding it out longer before coming to conclusions.

Included the reasons why this strategy will be at break even to loss making most of the time.

1) If you look at the number of down weeks per annum = 46%.
2)If SPY makes a small move up the chances of you making a loss is there since the delta of his spreads is not 0 (if he claims he does not look at market movement = lie!
3) PPD (price per day) 0 theta is only true if we assume price and volatility remains the same – this will never happen!

Pardon in advance this long-winded response. Hopefully it’s of value.

DISCLAIMER: I personally know Ryan, he’s my friend. We may not agree on everything in trading, and that’s perfectly normal to have different views. But I’ll tell you this, Ryan has accomplished some amazing feats in the trading world over the past 30 years, and he’s had his fair share of failures as well. However, he’s still standing over the past 3 decades in the market and is one of the brightest minds in this space. He’s one of the good guys, and truly wants traders to be successful.

Although, putting yourself out there publicly and trying to help traders with the best of intentions can be a pretty difficult and daunting task. That being said, and I’ll be direct, the negative real reviewers on the SHORT-TERM results are accurate during that ‘time period’,—however, they apparently lack “full” understanding of the strategy-concept , and it being one that’s long-term focused, centered around the long-term effects of proper money management— these negative reviews might not FULLY UNDERSTAND THIS ONE UNDENIABLE FACT ABOUT TRADING: No strategy works all the time, month after month, or even every year.

Are traders foolish enough to think that there are guaranteed profits in trading? Are traders foolish enough to think that if a strategy does not make money over the past 3-6 months, that math and probabilities are no longer valid? All strategies go into drawdowns or remain flat for an “unknown” amount of time. No equity curve moves in a perfect 45 degree angle. Come on, that’s fantasy land. Point being, you have to give it time, based on proper well defined expectations. Here’s the deal, you don’t know when the winning or losing streaks are coming, that’s why it’s all about surviving until the probabilities start to swing in your favor and you use proper money management to take advantage of that even more—Hey, I’ll be honest, it’s not the easiest thing in the world to wait out a drawdown, or flat equity curve, but it’s sooo important for long term success as a trader.

What professional traders realize is that it’s about being prepared for this unknown, and surviving it. You have to have realistic expectations, based on sound logic and sound principles. Apply these month after month, year after year, and allow proper money management (I prefer Fixed Ratio—which isn’t perfect, Ryan created this method and teaches it in-depth) to achieve extraordinary results YEARS down the road, NOT in MONTHS.

Most traders quit, start from zero again, rinse and repeat with the latest greatest strategy, until they are right back to where they started years ago. That being, nowhere or negative.

In my view, the information that Ryan produces is logical and very thorough. Thus, I am comfortable with the things he’s shared with me. I’m far from anxious about the market unknowns as it’s based on sound logic and principles that I’m comfortable with (and incorporate that around my own plan and style). Let’s be clear, it’s not the holy grail.

I respect people’s opinion, but as mentioned earlier many traders are near-sighted, don’t listen or misinterpret things, put word’s in others mouth etc (I’m guilty, and have made this mistake). But, to discredit Ryan is not fair, that’s the unfortunate nature of the internet blog/social media space…for every 1 disgruntled person, I’ll guarantee Ryan has 99 who like and respect his work and integrity…it’s funny, traders are unique creatures with some very interesting personalities…LOL.

Are Ryan’s strategies and approach the best in the world? …No, probably not.

Are the odds of LONG-TERM mathematical probabilities fixed in your favor with what Ryan teaches?… Yes.

Does this mean fixed ‘guaranteed’ favor? Of course not. But, other than tested fixed mathematical probabilities, what else better might one propose to base a good portion of the foundation, logic and principles on?

Good luck on your trading journey, and I truly wish everyone the best…even the negative reviewers, which I get, and respect, as I’ve been there sort of ‘blaming’ others…but in all fairness, you must not fully grasp the ‘long-term’ foundation of the logic and principles (which is fine of course, it’s not for everyone).

Respectfully.

I recently subscribed to a heavily discounted 12 Months of “PDS Trader”, from Ryan Jones. I really wanted his nine Trading Systems offered with the Subscription. A tenth System was included with the “PDS Trader” Resources. Highly detailed Videos, plus the underlying downloadable Power Point Presentations are made available to Subscribers. These are REALLY packed with Information, and FULLY discuss the Risks and Rewards associated with each Strategy. It might take two or three viewings to take in enough Information to confidently trade each System.
Ryan also includes Money Management Details, recommending the Lot Size to trade, according to Account Balance.
Obviously, trading much larger Lot Sizes is going to be much more risky. But in an “everything by yesterday” World, I can understand the Marketing Hype.
I believe that a 10% Return per Month (including Losses) would be realistic to maintain.
Without giving everything away, I think that the OP may have missed some of the essence of the differential Time Decay, which Ryan calls “Time Warp”. It comes from two sources. The Short Leg is sold for around one Week’s Duration, Close to The Money, ideally for maximum Time Value. This decays to zero. The Long Leg is bought with at least another Week’s Duration, generally Out of the Money (can be deeper In the Money, depending on which System, with similarly reduced Time Value). Ryan simplifies the Theta Decay to “Price Per Day”. The closer to expiry short Leg has much faster Time Decay. This gives a substantial Buffer against adverse Price Movement of the underlying ETF. These Diagonal Spreads are far superior to vertical Credit Spreads.
I’ve started very gently. I won’t double my Account in 90 Days, but likely will in around ten Months. Up 8% gross (excluding Commissions) in 9 closed Trades across my first 7 Weeks of trading. I’m using Ryan’s most conservative Strategies, initially.
If one was careful, assuming a 401(k) funded from at least five Years of Employment, you might be able to retire after a Year of trading Ryan’s Strategies. About an Hour of “Work” per Week, once the Strategies you prefer to trade are learned.
I’m one happy Customer, so far.

I’ve tried a couple of Ryan’s systems and both of them were losers. One was a low risk Time Warp system traded through a broker that was supposed to make $500 – $750/mo. and after losing for three months in a row I gave up. In theory his concepts sound really good, but in reality they just don’t stack up to the hype.

DISCLAIMER: Ryan Jones is my friend. I currently work with Ryan now. A friend of mine came across this recently and was asking me questions, thus I decided to make one last final post on behalf of Ryan and his team…but more importantly to open-up the eyes of traders that might be unaware of a few trading facts and realities.

Pardon in advance this long response…

I do not trade for a living, I actively trade/invest with an focus on overall wealth accumulation with a long term outlook. I have little concern over my daily, weekly or monthly equity curve ( I love to sleep well. Thus, I trade so small, that it almost seems pointless ‘to me’, but I fully understand math and proper compounding only takes small profits to accumulate geometric account growth over the coming years).

I have personally met and worked with 100’s and 1000’s of traders. Some ‘aspiring’ traders have no money, and are lifetime demo traders and market enthusiasts. Some can talk/teach theory all day long, but do not, or cannot trade real money. And some traders that I know and have worked with manage multi-billions of dollars, with varying degrees of backgrounds, success and failures. What I can tell you is this, no two traders are alike. There is no one path to trading. Everyone brings their own beliefs and philosophies to the table, which should be respected. Trading is a personal journey, that in all honesty, one must go at alone and become an independent thinker and action-taker. I do not know everything, I make plenty of dumb mistakes, but I’d still like to share some of my thoughts and advice to other fellow traders that I’ve learned along the way…

Ryan’s Time Warp approach has strong supporting evidence, based on sound principles. Based on significant research and testing. His approach has worked over the long run for many traders who have stuck with it, taken all the trades, and followed the rules. There’s literally a thousand ways to trade it. It does not grow equity every week, month, or quarter.
You pick 2 or 3 strategies and stick with it. It’s based on probabilities that play out over the long run with large number of occurrences. And is certainly not guaranteed to work every year (this is a naive mindset, if you have these type of expectations).

Ryan’s approach is based on math, odds and probabilities. Not theories, fundamental/ technical forecasts or opinions etc. All centered around risk, and proper money management. In respect to posting past trade signal results publicly, I’m not certain as to why exactly Ryan has chosen not to post them. He does post (within member’s area) each and every trade with trade commentary, rules, his thoughts, fills, results etc. It’s very transparent. I’m sure that his customer support staff might be able to provide you further clarity and insight.

That said…Most real money traders and real money systems are recovering from drawdowns a majority of the time, before they achieve new high hurdles of the previous equity high. It’s referred to as underwater equity curve. This curve is something that all traders must embrace, and learn to accept, or they will be vastly disappointed. Traders are usually experiencing loses, some even pain before they achieve new NAV highs. All traders have losing streaks of 5,10, 15 or more times in a row. It’s based on the mathematical effects of the natural logarithms of streaks that eventually happens to every trader. It’s not unusual for traders to experience drawdowns 3,4,5 consecutive months in a row if they trade long enough. Most traders do not make money year after year, after year after year. My question, how can you expect to overcome these compelling trading truths? The answer is, you can’t. But, having REALISTIC expectations, then preparing for these expectations is where you must plant your feet. Do not trade big, which causes pain and anxiety. And stick with it before passing quick judgement.

A traders next trade is based on Random Probability Theory, whereby no one can forecast the known outcome. You can run 20,30, or 100 possible future randomized scenarios with the exact same system, same plan, same risk management…and one can have totally different results, based on time, meaning the time it is implemented. Some will be down, some will be rather flat, and some people will be up on overall equity. How is this so? Now are you beginning to see why you have positive and negative user reviews?
… It’s because of Random Probability Theory, and the time in which an traders implements the strategy, coupled with the effects of Risk Management (when bet sizes are increased/decreased) which provide DIFFERENT results for the SAME SYSTEM.

You see, traders look at it in the wrong context, or just on the surface. You have to fully understand the facts of the case. No one knows when the winners or losers are coming. As mentioned before, the effects of increasing/decreasing bet size that falls within the proper money management plan effects everything as well, often to a very significant degree throughout the long run.

Thus, based on all of these aforementioned facts, what do you see in these negative reviews that provides a valid argument that Ryan’s stuff (or anyone else’s) cannot, does not or will not work over the long run? Where’s your data, and supporting evidence that Ryan’s stuff (or anyone else’s) should not be effected by any of the aforementioned facts, and that long-term perspective and judgment should overall be negative?

MY POINT: You have to have realistic and factual information before you start trading and passing judgment on any system. You cannot pass judgment over 10 or 20 trades, or over a few months of taking some trades (In my experience of auditing, most novice traders that rely on trade signals ‘cherry-pick’ trades, hesitate, miss trades, and many deviate from the strategy and plan all together).

All you can do as a trader is this, confirm that there’s appropriate supporting evidence for the long-term odds of success of a strategy. Understand ALL the risks involved etc. If you are not convinced, take a pass, or simply proceed with caution.

Remember, only trade with a positive expectancy system. Trade small to survive, and stick with it over the longer run. Further advice…Don’t judge your trading on the past 5,10,15 trades etc. If you do, you’ll very likely keep rinsing and repeating the same traders cycle of the quest for the ‘now, hot’ trading system. For example, if Ryan’s stuff does not fit your style and beliefs, cool. Go in search of a positive expectancy system based on sound mathematical odds, one that can be proved statistically and are leaned in your favor, or go create and test it on your own. Again, trade small. Properly compound profits over the months and years. Whatever you decide, stick with it. Lastly, taking a bonafide assessment of where you are at, under current market conditions is never a bad idea. You may need to tweak things, which is certainly not unreasonable if it’s quantifiable.

Here’s a great quote from a respected veteran trader: “If you want to know yourself – all your insecurities, character faults, issues of pride, areas of greed or selfishness, unresolved traits, etc. – just become a trader… How true! Self-awareness and managing the human side of trading is a hallmark of every great trader I have known over the years.”—-

Thanks for this discussion, which appears to serves as a platform to help and support fellow traders — with the purpose based on appropriate context, substance and logic. All the best in trading, as well as in life.